Small business optimism rebounds in July, led by stronger hiring plans

August 11, 2026 - 22:30

Optimism among small business owners climbed back above its long-term average in July, according to the latest data from the National Federation of Independent Business. The rebound was fueled by more solid plans for hiring and capital spending, though owners still pointed to ongoing uncertainty about the broader economy.

The NFIB's monthly optimism index rose to a level not seen in several months, with a notable jump in the share of owners who said they expect to create new jobs over the next three months. That shift suggests that many firms are looking past recent headwinds and preparing for steady demand. Plans to make major purchases, such as equipment or vehicles, also ticked upward, a sign that confidence is spreading beyond just day-to-day operations.

Still, the report was not all rosy. The measure of uncertainty stayed elevated, reflecting lingering concerns over interest rates, regulatory costs, and the upcoming election cycle. While fewer owners cited inflation as their top problem compared to earlier in the year, it remains a leading worry, especially for those in retail and construction. Labor quality also continued to be a challenge, with many owners reporting few or no qualified applicants for open positions.

the July reading offers a cautiously positive picture. Hiring intentions are stronger, and investment plans are firmer, but the mood is far from exuberant. Owners are moving forward, but they are keeping one eye on the road ahead.